Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 20.063262 21.143021 22.272181 23.545031 24.944780 26.442694 28.174252
2026-02-08 18.237847 19.709657 21.316801 23.215784 25.416636 27.910266 30.983424
2026-02-15 17.121373 18.810189 20.707943 23.023737 25.809314 29.100875 33.362045
2026-02-22 16.602325 18.501171 20.689084 23.437059 26.857383 31.063206 36.778175
2026-03-01 15.883917 17.887949 20.240718 23.261416 27.122713 32.024689 38.958301
2026-03-08 15.100916 17.141571 19.571622 22.744802 26.886611 32.280738 40.166647
2026-03-15 14.514137 16.596774 19.109820 22.444124 26.884034 32.812113 41.769227
2026-03-22 14.306931 16.501878 19.192304 22.831052 27.796062 34.634266 45.413040
2026-03-29 14.056282 16.335340 19.167541 23.063883 28.499011 36.202586 48.844923
2026-04-05 13.793959 16.138558 19.088385 23.209875 29.077333 37.621401 52.201895
2026-04-12 13.435801 15.802228 18.808488 23.060728 29.214212 38.375040 54.529756
2026-04-19 13.038468 15.399703 18.422892 22.742007 29.076946 38.683451 56.105255
2026-04-26 12.652943 15.007681 18.046348 22.431774 28.953229 39.033716 57.865995
2026-05-03 12.293761 14.639279 17.688401 22.131150 28.825111 39.365199 59.641022
2026-05-10 12.002745 14.350987 17.426983 21.953732 28.869101 39.974595 62.031294
2026-05-17 11.926450 14.345215 17.549381 22.335173 29.800095 42.156394 67.968301
2026-05-24 11.670279 14.087969 17.312664 22.173125 29.853184 42.811057 70.784757
2026-05-31 11.323123 13.697716 16.877579 21.696117 29.368349 42.461814 71.300231
2026-06-07 11.058376 13.413224 16.582661 21.418227 29.193527 42.660964 73.116860
2026-06-14 11.011331 13.424756 16.704856 21.775794 30.087904 44.916036 80.313299
2026-06-21 10.921756 13.374045 16.735004 21.990803 30.752726 46.801835 87.091452
2026-06-28 10.812047 13.291616 16.715568 22.125561 31.284864 48.479467 93.790829
2026-07-05 10.627110 13.098809 16.529275 21.987890 31.328119 49.165747 97.840127